Do Bans on Affirmative Action Hurt Minority Students?
Evidence from the Texas Top 10% Plan
Upjohn Institute Working Paper 10-168
Kalena E. Cortes
Syracuse University
May 2010
JEL Classification Codes: I21, I23, J15, J24
Abstract
In light of the recent bans on affirmative action in higher education, this paper provides new
evidence on the effects of alternative admissions policies on the persistence and college
completion of minority students. I find that the change from affirmative action to the Top 10%
Plan in Texas decreased both retention and graduation rates of lower-ranked minority students.
Results show that both fall-to-fall freshmen retention and six-year college graduation of second decile
minority students decreased, respectively, by 2.4 and 3.3 percentage points. The effect of
the change in admissions policy was slightly larger for minority students in the third and lower
deciles: fall-to-fall freshmen retention and six-year college graduation decreased, respectively,
by 4.9 and 4.2 percentage points. Moreover, I find no evidence in support of the minority
"mismatch" hypothesis. These results suggest that most of the increase in the graduation gap
between minorities and non-minorities in Texas, a staggering 90 percent, was driven by the
elimination of affirmative action in the 1990s.
* This paper is forthcoming in Economics of Education Review.
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